Around FCS: PFL Must Replace Stars
Cfootball Betting Lines
08/27/2008 -
Philadelphia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pioneer Football League has experienced
something of a renaissance era in the past few years with players like San
Diego's Josh Johnson and Eric Bakhtiari and Dayton's Kevin Hoyng passing
through the league.
With those players having graduated, the PFL must find a new identity with new
stars this season.
San Diego has some name players back with J.T. Rogan at running back, John
Matthews at wide receiver, Gabe Derricks at cornerback and versatile Ben
Hannula moving to quarterback after playing receiver and defensive back.
Dayton has some great defenders returning, but must replace Hoyng at
quarterback. Davidson returns the league's most experienced quarterback with
Ryan Alexander and could challenge with him leading the way.
Morehead State and Drake also hope to get into the mix for title contention,
while Jacksonville, Valparaiso and Butler look to improve.
The league adds Campbell this year as the Camels return to football for the
first time since 1939. Marist, which is playing as an independent this year
after the disbanding of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association, will move to
the PFL in 2009.
1. San Diego (9-2 overall, 6-1 conference, tied for first 2007)
Johnson (43 TD passes, one interception, 3,714 yards of total offense) has
moved on to the NFL after putting up some of the best numbers in NCAA history
and finishing third in last year's Payton Award voting.
Hannula looks to be his replacement and has the athleticism to keep the
Torero's offense clicking. Andre Rolin was Johnson's backup in 2007 and started
one game (249 yards, five TDs), but was sidelined by a shoulder injury in the
spring.
Rogan rushed for 1,021 yards and 10 TDs and is also one of the best kick
returners in FCS. Matthews averaged 23.1 yards with 16 TDs on 47 catches.
Bakhtiari will be missed after being a Buchanan Award finalist last year and
helping USD roll up 32 sacks last season. But there are enough good players to
rebuild the defense around with Patrick O'Neill (65 tackles) and Derricks (55
tackles) keying the defense.
Kicker Hutch Parker (9-of-12 on field goals) and punter John McSorley (30.2 net
punting average) give the Toreros good special teams play.
Ron Caragher had a strong first year as coach after replacing Stanford-bound
Jim Harbaugh and should be a strength for the team again this year. San Diego
has piled up five straight winning seasons, has won or shared three consecutive
PFL titles and should be the favorite to win the title again.
2. Dayton (11-1, 6-1, tied for first)
The biggest change at Dayton is the retirement of legendary coach Mike Kelly
after 27 years and only one losing season, but Rick Chamberlain moves from
defensive coordinator to head coach to keep the continuity in the program.
Chamberlain takes over a team that won a share of the PFL title, the Gridiron
Classic and The Sportsbook Betting Lines Cup as the top mid-major school.
Hoyng rushed for 640 yards, passed for 3,317 and accounted for 40 TDs in the
Flyers' new spread attack last year, so new starter Rob Florian will have some
big shoes to fill. The strong-armed Florian had 411 yards passing in one start
in 2006.
Ben Shappie is the best returning running back (529 yards, 4.9 average, six
TDs). Dayton will also miss All-American tight end Matt Champa (59 catches,
15.9 average, nine TDs).
Defense will again be a Flyer strength with Steve McDonald (79 tackles) Corey
Vossler (71 tackles), Scott Vossler (68 tackles, nine sacks) and Kalen
Hemmelgarn (41 tackles, 8.5 sacks) among the six returning starters. Dayton was
ranked fourth nationally in defense last year.
3. Davidson (6-4, 4-3, fourth)
The Wildcats will likely go as far as Alexander's strong arm will take them.
Alexander passed for 2,238 yards and 18 TDs last year as Davidson closed ground
on the top of the PFL.
Chad Barnes, Justin Williams and Kenny Mantao combined for 1,055 yards rushing
last year, while Kirk Konert and Myles Potter had 27 receptions each. The line
must replace a standout center in George Zoeckler.
The Wildcats averaged 31 points per game, but gave up 28 on average last year,
but the defense should improve with eight starters returning. Free safety Matt
Easton and linebacker Peter Bakke (71 tackles each) and nose guard Will
Funderburg will be the leaders of the unit.
4. Morehead State (7-4, 5-2, third)
The Eagles were the only team to beat Dayton last year, but they missed a
chance to qualify for the Gridiron Classic and win a share of the PFL title
when they dropped a 27-14 decision to San Diego in their final league game.
MSU will have to replace plenty of offense with the graduation of quarterback
Brian Yost (2,142 yards, 20 TDs), but new starter Evan Sawyer will have Nick
Feldman (45 catches, 16.3 average) and Erick Fitzpatrick (312 yards rushing,
425 yards receiving) to rely on.
The Eagles ranked first nationally in rushing defense, giving up just 54 yards
per game and were 10th overall. Six starters return from that group, including
linebacker Wes McDermott (64 tackles, 7.5 tackles per loss). All-American
defensive back David Hyland had eight interceptions and 11 pass breakups last
season and also caught 10 passes on offense.
5. Valparaiso (5-6, 2-5, tied for sixth)
After four consecutive losing seasons, the Crusaders hope to make some headway
this season. Warren Arnold has a chance to become an elite quarterback in the
league after rushing for 750 yards, passing for 1,912 yards and accounting for
17 TDs last season.
Valpo loses running back Jeff Horton (3,072 career yards) and will look for
Ross Wiemer (397 yards) and John Popper (291 yards) to take up the slack. Steve
Ogden (42 catches, 15.9 average, seven TDs) should be Arnold's top receiving
target again and Ryan Kozay anchors what should be a solid line.
On defense, the Crusaders are excited to have 19 of their top 20 tacklers
returning from a unit that ranked 39th defensively last year in FCS. Adam Rundh
(7.5 sacks) and Andrew Mack (5.5 sacks) head up an experienced defensive line
and Ryan Koepke (79 tackles) leads the linebackers. Cornerback Kyle
Himmelwright is the top returner among a secondary that returns four starters.
6. Drake (6-5, 3-4, fifth)
It was a strange year for a senior-oriented Bulldog squad last year. Veteran
coach Rob Ash took the Montana State head coaching job during the spring and
Steve Loney was named as interim coach.
Loney's team managed to upset No. 7 ranked Illinois State in the first game and
was ranked No. 1 in the Sportsbook Betting Lines for part of the year. Drake won five of
its first six games, losing only to Northern Iowa, but dropped four of its
final five and brought in Chris Creighton as the new coach.
The offense loses its all-time leading rusher, Scott Phaydavong (5,830 career
yards), but can build around quarterback Cole Ingle (1,387 yards, 11 TDs).
Michael Bialas (122 yards five TDs) is the top returning rusher, while Zach
Brower (47 catches, 13.9 average) is a receiving threat.
The offensive line lost All-American Dave Pammer, but returns Quinn McVey.
Drake has six starters back on defense, including linebackers Ben Morrison (87
tackles) and Stephen Platek (74 tackles) and defensive tackle Andrew Asbell (32
tackles, six sacks), but must replace top-notch safety Andy Green.
7. Jacksonville (3-8, 2-5, tied for sixth)
The Dolphins took some steps forward and others backwards in Kerwin Bell's
first year as coach. They struggled running the ball and defending the run to
finish 87th in scoring offense (21.8 points per game and 99th in scoring
defense (31.9).
Jacksonville found a gifted running back in freshman Rudell Small, who ran for
490 yards and nine TDs in partial year as a starter. Small, Tommie Rogers and
Ron Harris combined for 1,036 yards. Erik Stapleton takes over a quarterback
after throwing for 657 yards in a backup role for a team that returns six
offensive starters, including receiver Geavon Tribble (41 catches, 17.1
average, five TDs).
The defense only has five starters returning. Free safety Robson Noel (80
tackles) has been the Dolphins' most productive performer.
8. Butler (4-7, 0-7, eighth)
Hopes were high when the Bulldogs won their first four games last year, but
then they failed to win again in PFL play. Butler has compiled six straight
losing years, but the four wins were the most since 2002.
The offense ranked 105th nationally offense and can only improve. Matt Kobli
(575 yards of total offense) takes over at quarterback and has Scott Gray (547
yards, 15 TDs) to count on as a running back. Dan Bohrer is the best returning
receiver with 36 catches for a 10.8 average last season.
The defense was solid against the run (33rd nationally), but struggled against
the pass (100th). Six starters are back, including defensive end Derek
Guggenberger (68 tackles, three sacks) and safety Mike Bennett (57 tackles,
eight tackles for loss), but the Bulldogs could struggle again on this side of
the ball.
9. Campbell (first year program)
Dale Steele, a longtime assistant coach with Southern Conference and FBS roots,
takes over a program that will play for the first time in 58 years. The Camels
will play a non-Division I schedule before embarking on their PFL slate.
Wesley Snow is expected to be the quarterback in the spread offense, while Carl
Smith rushed for 114 yards in the spring game and looks to be the top rusher,
along with Earl Kemp. Ray Griffis has established himself as a go-to receiver,
while guard Andy Johnson has opened eyes on the offensive line.
The 4-3 defense will likely be one of the smallest in the league, averaging 242
pounds, but Steele has found a couple of gems in defensive tackle Randal
Herring and free safety Chris Dixon.
10. Marist (3-8, 2-1 MAAC, tied for first)
The Red Foxes will try to get through an independent season before being
eligible for the PFL title in 2009. With no league title to compete for,
motivation could be difficult for the team.
Marist will again feature a strong rushing attack with Obozua Ehikioya (631
yards, seven TDs) and Keith Mitchell (405 yards) returning. Will Brown (35
catches, 11.0 average) is the best experienced receiver, but the Red Foxes will
be inexperienced at quarterback. John Schaeffer is the likely starter.
Rory Foley (66 tackles) may move from linebacker to safety, while Kurt Steubing
(63 tackles) will continue to bolster the linebacking corps. The defensive line
must replace all three starters, though Terrence Turner has come on strong.
The Red Foxes must improve on both sides of the ball after being ranked 90th
offensively and 82nd defensively last year.
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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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