Nearly perfect: Karstens outduels Big Unit
Baseball Betting Lines
08/06/2008 -
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Karstens took a perfect game into the
eighth inning before surrendering a double to Chris Young with two outs, but
recovered to throw a two-hit shutout in Pittsburgh's 2-0 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the finale of a three-game series.
Karstens (2-0) retired the first 23 batters before Young lined a 1-1 pitch
into the left field corner in the eighth. Karstens recovered to get out of the
inning on the next pitch, however, and survived a single and a walk in the
ninth to pick up his second win in as many starts since joining the Pirates.
One of the four players acquired by Pittsburgh in the deal that sent Xavier
Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yankees on July 26, Karstens tossed six shutout
innings against the NL Central-leading Cubs in his National League debut on
August 1, a 3-0 Pirates win.
That was merely a prelude to Wednesday, when the 25-year-old right-hander
fanned four against the NL West-leading Diamondbacks and nearly tossed the
18th perfect game in major league history, and the first in Pirates history.
In doing so Karstens outdueled the man who tossed the last perfect game in the
majors, Randy Johnson. Johnson (9-8) was strong, but not strong enough,
surrendering seven hits and two runs in 7 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts
and no walks for Arizona, which failed to sweep the three-game set.
"Jeff pitched outstanding," said Johnson, who was Karstens' teammate with the
Yankees. "I got to meet him a little bit when he was in New York on that
shuttle up and down ... He opened a lot of eyes."
Freddy Sanchez's solo homer and an RBI double by Doug Mientkiewicz provided
the offense for the Pirates, who stemmed a four-game slide.
After the Pirates added an insurance run in the eighth, Karstens saw his bid
for perfection end in the home half. Chad Tracy's hard liner to center was
nabbed by Jason Michaels, and Chris Gomez recovered from a bobble on Mark
Reynolds' grounder to throw across for the second out.
Young laced a double into left, though, ensuring that his teammate Johnson
remained the last pitcher to toss a perfect game.
"It wasn't really nerves," said Karstens of Young's double. "It was one of
those things and he (Young) stayed on a pitch and hit it down the line. Major
league hitters are going to do that."
Karstens came right back and got Alex Romero to ground out to second to keep
the shutout in line.
Karstens issued his only walk to pinch-hitter Augie Ojeda to lead off the
ninth, but came back to get pinch-hitter Tony Clark to ground right back to
the mound, starting a 1-6-3 double play. Orlando Hudson's grounder to first
was the last out as Karstens settled for his first career shutout.
"Obviously he was outstanding," Pirates manager John Russell said of Karstens.
"No-hitter in the eighth and he threw the ball as good as he can throw it.
That's what he's capable of doing."
Johnson is the last pitcher, and the oldest to reach perfection, as he was 40
when he accomplished the feat against the Braves on May 18, 2004. His only
mistake through seven innings was an 0-2 slider he hung up and over the plate
to Sanchez with one out and the bases empty in the fourth. Sanchez belted it
into the seats down the line in left for his eighth homer of the season, the
first earned run Johnson had allowed in 24 innings.
The Pirates touched Johnson for another run in the eighth, though, led by none
other than Karstens, who lined a one-out single to left to start the rally.
Gomez's looping pop fell just fair in shallow right to put two men on for
Mientkiewicz, who exchanged words with Johnson after "The Big Unit" was upset
by a late timeout call by Mientkiewicz in a Pirates win in Pittsburgh on June
9.
Mientkiewicz exacted a bit of revenge, as his line-drive double into the
corner in right plated Karstens for a two-run edge, and ended Johnson's day.
Game Notes
The last Pirates no-hitter was a combined effort from Francisco Cordova and
Ricardo Rincon in a 10-inning, 3-0 win over Astros in 1997. John Candelaria
was the last pitcher to throw a no-hitter for the Bucs, in a 2-0 win over the
Dodgers on August 9, 1976...The D-backs are 30-40 in games outside of the NL
West this season, compared to 29-15 against divisional foes. Last season the
club was 54-36 in games outside of the NL West and 36-36 in divisional
games...The Pirates have beaten Johnson five of the last seven times he has
faced the club.
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contest
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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